Regional importation and asymmetric within-country spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the Netherlands (preprint)

Variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have caused resurging waves of infections worldwide. In the Netherlands, Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants circulated widely between September 2020 and August 2021. To understand how various control measures had impacted the spread of these VOCs, we analyzed 39,844 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected under the Dutch national surveillance program. We found that all four VOCs were introduced before targeted flight restrictions were imposed on countries where the VOCs first emerged. Importantly, foreign introductions, predominantly from other European countries, continued during these restrictions. Our findings show that flight restrictions had limited effectiveness in deterring VOC introductions due to the strength of regional land travel importation risks. We also found that the Alpha and Delta variants largely circulated more populous regions with international connections after their respective introduction before asymmetric bidirectional transmissions occurred with the rest of the country and the variant dominated infections in the Netherlands. As countries consider scaling down SARS-CoV-2 surveillance efforts in the post-crisis phase of the pandemic, our results highlight that robust surveillance in regions of early spread is important for providing timely information for variant detection and outbreak control.

IgG1 responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection are polyclonal and highly personalized, whereby each donor and each clone displays a distinct pattern of cross-reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

Using a recently introduced efficient mass spectrometry-based approach we monitored in molecular detail the IgG1 clonal responses in individual donors' IgG1 clonal responses in molecular detail, examining SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein-specific IgG1 repertoires. We monitored the plasma clonal IgG1 profiles of 8 donors (4 male and 4 female) who had recently experienced an infection by either the wild type Wuhan Hu-1 virus or one of 3 VOCs (Alpha, Beta and Gamma). In these donors we charted the full plasma IgG1 repertoires as well as the IgG1 repertoires targeting the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein trimer as antigen. We observed that shortly after infection in between <0.1% to almost 10% of all IgG1 antibody molecules present in plasma did bind to the spike protein. Each donor displayed a unique plasma IgG1 repertoire, but also each donor displayed a unique and polyclonal antibody response against the SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein variants. Our analyses revealed that certain clones exhibit (alike) binding affinity towards all four tested spike-protein variants, whereas other clones displayed strong unique mutant-specific affinity. We conclude that each infected person generates a unique polyclonal response following infection, whereby some of these clones can bind multiple viral variants, whereas other clones do not display such cross-reactivity. In general, by assessing IgG1 repertoires following infection it becomes possible to identify and select fully matured human plasma antibodies that target specific antigens, and display either high specificity or cross-reactivity versus mutated versions of the antigen, which will aid in selecting antibodies that may be developed into biotherapeutics.

Increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron compared to Delta in vaccinated and previously infected individuals, the Netherlands, 22 November to 19 December 2021 (preprint)

Infections by the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant are rapidly increasing worldwide. Among 70,983 infected individuals (age [≥] 12 years), we observed an increased risk of S-gene target failure, predictive of the Omicron variant, in fully vaccinated (odds ratio: 5.0; 95% confidence interval: 4.0-6.1) and previously infected individuals (OR: 4.9: 95% CI: 3.1-7.7) compared with infected naive individuals. This suggests a substantial decrease in protection from vaccine- or infection-induced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant.

Declining SARS-CoV-2 PCR sensitivity with time and dependence on clinical features: consequences for control (preprint)

Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples is the primary method to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infections and guide public health measures, with a supportive role for serology. However, the clinical sensitivity of RT-PCR remains uncertain. In the present study, Bayesian statistical modeling was used to retrospectively determine the sensitivity of RT-PCR using SARS-CoV-2 serology in 644 COVID-19-suspected patients with varying degrees of disease severity and duration. The sensitivity of RT-PCR ranged between 79-95%; while increasing with disease severity, it decreased rapidly over time in mild COVID-19 cases. Negative URT RT-PCR results should therefore be interpreted in the context of clinical characteristics, especially with regard to containment of viral transmission based on the 'test, trace and isolate' principle.

Herd immunity is not a realistic exit strategy during a COVID-19 outbreak (preprint)

The world is combating an ongoing COVID-19 pandemic1-4. Health-care systems, society and the economy are impacted in an unprecedented way. It is unclear how many people have contracted the causative coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) unknowingly. Therefore, reported COVID-19 cases do not reflect the true scale of outbreak5-9. Natural herd immunity has been suggested as a potential exit strategy during COVID-19 outbreaks, which may arise when 50-67% of a community has been infected10. Here we present the prevalence and distribution of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a healthy adult population of a highly affected country using a novel immunoassay, indicating that one month into the outbreak (i) the seroprevalence in the Netherlands is 2.7% with substantial regional variation, (ii) the hardest-hit areas show a seroprevalence of up to 9.5%, (iii) the seroprevalence is sex-independent throughout age groups (18-72 years), (iv) antibodies are significantly more often detected in younger people (18-30 years), and (v) the number of immune individuals in the current epidemic stage is far below the herd immunity threshold. This study provides vital information on the extent of virus spread in a country where social distancing is in place, concluding that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not a realistic short-term exit strategy option.

Comparison of commercial RT-PCR diagnostic kits for COVID-19 (preprint)

The final months of 2019 witnessed the emergence of a novel coronavirus in the human population. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has since spread across the globe and is posing a major burden on society. Measures taken to reduce its spread critically depend on timely and accurate identification of virus-infected individuals by the most sensitive and specific method available, i.e. real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR). Many commercial kits have recently become available, but their performance has not yet been independently assessed. The aim of this study was to compare basic analytical and clinical performance of selected RT-PCR kits from seven different manufacturers (Altona Diagnostics, BGI, CerTest Biotec, KH Medical, PrimerDesign, R-Biopharm AG, and Seegene). We used serial dilutions of viral RNA to establish PCR efficiency and estimate the 95% limit of detection (LOD95%). Furthermore, we ran a panel of SARS-CoV-2-positive clinical samples (n=16) for a preliminary evaluation of clinical sensitivity. Finally, we used clinical samples positive for non-coronavirus respiratory viral infections (n=6) and a panel of RNA from related human coronaviruses to evaluate assay specificity. PCR efficiency was [≥]96% for all assays and the estimated LOD95% varied within a 6-fold range. Using clinical samples, we observed some variations in detection rate between kits. Importantly, none of the assays showed cross-reactivity with other respiratory (corona)viruses, except as expected for the SARS-CoV-1 E-gene. We conclude that all RT-PCR kits assessed in this study may be used for routine diagnostics of COVID-19 in patients by experienced molecular diagnostic laboratories.

SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses in COVID-19 patients (preprint)

A new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has recently emerged to cause a human pandemic. Whereas molecular diagnostic tests were rapidly developed, serologic assays are still lacking, yet urgently needed. Validated serologic assays are important for contact tracing, identifying the viral reservoir and epidemiological studies. Here, we developed serological assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing, spike- and nucleocapsid-specific antibodies. Using serum samples from patients with PCR-confirmed infections of SARS-CoV-2, other coronaviruses, or other respiratory pathogenic infections, we validated and tested various antigens in different in-house and commercial ELISAs. We demonstrate that most PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals seroconverted, as revealed by sensitive and specific in-house ELISAs. We found that commercial S1 IgG or IgA ELISAs were of lower specificity while sensitivity varied between the two, with IgA showing higher sensitivity. Overall, the validated assays described here can be instrumental for the detection of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies for diagnostic, seroepidemiological and vaccine evaluation studies.